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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."